TAKE FEAR SERIOUSLY

For those seeking insights into when stocks may halt their decline, paying attention to macroeconomic data, bond market dynamics and the dollar’s performance. These fundamentals can signal when equities are nearing the end of their downturn, serving as valuable guides for investors.

MARKETS THIS WEEK

Impact of rising interest rates and technical breaches in key indices shows the market remains cautious, balancing concerns over economic growth and monetary policies. The Israel-Hamas conflict has elevated gold, crypto and oil prices. However a clear trend is not visible in either of the three yet. Stocks will start to recover when the market believes that bond yields have peaked.

BEAR TERRITORY AHEAD

The economy may face challenges, with expectations of inflation running above trend for several years. Easy money policies have given way to an involuntary tax through inflation, affecting consumers. For the moment it appears safe to assume that the stock markets have topped out.