BULL RUN OVER?

Assessing present landscape

As 2023 unfolded, the prevailing bearish sentiment among strategists, fueled by the previous year’s market challenges, faced an unexpected twist. Initially predicting a tough first half followed by second-half resilience. This event led to fleeting fears of an imminent recession and tumbling interest rates. Despite this, the Nasdaq flourished, experiencing its best first half in 40 years, driven by optimism around AI and mega-cap tech stocks. However, entering the second half, sticky inflation had sent interest rates soaring beyond the comfortable range and financial conditions were seen worsening.

The pause

The latter half of the year saw a surge in earnings reports, momentarily masking a looming storm. Fed Chair Powell’s message at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and the subsequent September Fed ‘pause’ triggered significant selling in the markets. The last three months witnessed indebted companies grappling with risk management amid rising intermediate and long-term interest rates. The macro picture is further complicated by household finances, marked by rising borrowing rates and soaring housing costs, potentially affecting holiday sales.

Market sentiment

As 2023 nears its end, the financial landscape offers ample fodder for hope and concern, greed and fear. Questions about higher borrowing costs’ impact on corporate decisions, consumer spending, and executive preparedness in navigating the complex macro environment linger. The market’s performance, while showing promising gains, has yet to fully recover from 2022’s losses, challenging the perception of a bear-market rally. The recent rise in Treasury yields presents near-term headwinds for stocks, prompting investors to reevaluate equity allocations.

Current trends and risks in S&P 500

Analyzing the current trend profile for the S&P 500 reveals a robust bounce from the previous year’s low, albeit with recent stumbling. Despite a year-to-date gain of 14%, the index hasn’t fully recovered from the 2022 loss. The 8.7% peak-to-trough decline suggests prevailing bear-market conditions until surpassing the January 2022 peak. The surge in Treasury yields, nearing a 16-year high, indicates potential headwinds for stocks. The economic outlook and corporate earnings rebound offer a counterpoint, yet geopolitical uncertainties like the Israel-Hamas conflict and the ongoing Ukraine war add caution.

The Road Ahead

While optimism surrounds economic growth and a potential end to rate hikes, geopolitical conflicts cast shadows. The historical trend of markets climbing a ‘wall of worry’ remains, but near-term sustainable rallies are uncertain. The current neutral stance on equity risk outlook stems from middling trend activity, reflecting the absence of the extremely oversold condition that fueled last year’s rally. Investors are left pondering what catalysts are needed that could propel the market above its previous high, while being aware of the persisting risks and the market’s historic ability to overcome uncertainties over time.

For the moment, the possibilities don’t translate into a compelling forecast that an upside breakout is about to start.



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